Data centres power bills would rise by $40 billion in wholesale costs if 5 gigawatts of new load connect to the existing east-coast grid without bringing matching generation. The Smart Energy Council published the analysis on Monday in a report called $40 billion hike.
The $40 billion is the increase in wholesale prices across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia between 2029 and 2035 under a “build first, catch up later” scenario. The Australian Energy Market Commission had floated one version of that approach. The SEC says the cost of the lag must be carried by the data centres, not by households.
What the data centres power bills figure actually covers
AEMO already has 17 data centre projects in its connection queue, totalling 9 GW. Five of them (1.4 GW) are being implemented. The SEC calls 5 GW a credible stress-test because of the queue and the announcements that have followed. Without matching new supply, New South Wales wholesale prices would be 26 percent higher in 2035, according to separate work by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and Baringa. With renewables and storage added alongside the load, the increase falls to 3 percent.
The same constraint is already visible in the cities. Bloomberg found that only 23 percent of more than 40 large projects planned or under construction in Sydney and Melbourne have confirmed electricity or grid connections. NextDC deferred $140 million in contracted Melbourne revenue last week after residents blocked transmission lines. The company has paused all new developments.
Why the $40 billion number is now on the table
Operators have said for two years that the limit is not demand. It is power. The SEC analysis prices what happens if the load arrives first. The wholesale cost is $40 billion over seven years on the east coast alone. The SEC’s position is that data centres should bring the generation with them, or the bill lands on everyone else.
